Does the Fed hike on 16 September?

Warsh moved this from a ~30% view to the base case in a single Jackson Hole speech on 28 August: "The responsibility for 65 months of sustained, elevated inflation sits squarely with the central bank… Otherwise, we have work to do." Market-implied odds roughly doubled overnight. On the other side, David Einhorn's Q2 letter (14 Aug) states Greenlight is positioned for no hike in 2026 — real money against the consensus.